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Don’t Hit That Ad-Skipping Panic Pause-Button Yet August 20, 2006

Posted by David Card in Media.

Sunday’s Washington Post paints a very — make that ridiculously — positive picture on ad-skipping via DVRs by using CBS’ research chief and some still-dubious Nielsen Media data as its key sources.

If I were a media buyer, I’d still be nervous about ad-skipping, and I’d refuse to pay the same CPM for delayed viewing of shows. Our surveys show that 36% of online users with DVRs say they watch recorded shows the same day or week. But half of DVR users say they skip most or all commercials.

However, you’ll see in upcoming reports, that we’ve lowered our 5-year DVR forecast, as cable and satellite roll-outs are slowing, and it doesn’t feel like DirecTV’s going to give ’em away. We’re thinking less than 25% TV household penetration before 2010. Not 65 million, as the story says some are forecasting — closer to half that.

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