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Prediction Anticipation January 2, 2007

Posted by David Card in Media.

I’ll do my predictions for media and technology 2007 tomorrow. Till then, let some of these wise folks tide you over.

LA Times entertainment business staff
Mark Kingdon of Organic
Search guru John Battelle

I can’t say I’m as bullish on niche social networks as Mark is. While logically they make sense — we all have multiple real world networks that we get different things from — I’m not sure you can build media businesses off of them online without scale or highly desirable audiences. Yahoo-Microsoft, or Yahoo-eBay make more sense to me than some of the other suggested mergers, but what can you do with a merger that you can’t with a deal? Not much. And neither of those addresses the off-line media piece some of the players are missing. Although Yahoo-Dow Jones would help that, I think Dow Jones-News Corp. or Dow Jones-WaPo more likely. But then I don’t do mergers.

And here are mine from last year. I’ll review my success rate tomorrow, too.

UPDATED. You can play USA Today’s media prognostications game again this year. I swear I did last year, but I can’t find any results. In fact, like last year, this is a fun idea that cries out to be implemented online in a less hopelessly lame more interactive fashion.

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