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More Prediction Anticipation – How’d I Do for ’06? January 3, 2007

Posted by David Card in Media.

One last step before airing my 2007 media & technology predictions — comparing last year’s with reality.

I had three Make or Break candidates in 2006: Tivo, MySpace, AOL.com. Tivo didn’t get acquired. Ouch. I still think Apple would be a great match. Or maybe Amazon. MySpace crossed the sustainability hump. AOL.com strategy hasn’t paid off yet, and there’s still a massive shake-up going on between Manhattan and Dulles. One for three.

I tagged Website Deconstruction as important, but bleeding edge. It still is.

I said the following wouldn’t be big deals in 2006:
– Breaking up Time Warner: (a la Viacom) – check
– Blog network ad revenues – check
– Collapsing filmed entertainment release windows: day-and-date DVD and box office releases, etc. – check
– IPTV – check
– Mobile music (over-the-air downloads) or mobile video – check, though they’re both starting to matter
– DVRs and ad-skipping – check, though see above
– China anything – check
– Next-gen DVD formats (Blu-ray vs. HD-DVD) – check
– Google off-line advertising (not this year) – check

And I predicted someone big would leave Google — it didn’t happen — and that Yahoo would shake itself up, which did.

Not bad. I seem to be better at predicting non-trends. Is there a business in that?

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