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Isn’t Online Entertainment Supposed to Be an Audition? July 30, 2007

Posted by David Card in Media.
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This is all very cool, but wouldn’t the Lonelygirl15 creators rather have, like, real jobs? In Hollywood? Star Jessica Rose — Bree herself — has a part in Lindsay Lohan’s latest. Umm, maybe that’s not so great.

    Shooting continues on location around London on the brand new internet drama series KateModern, commissioned by, and screening exclusively on leading global social networking site Bebo.com.
    The brand new web-based series is the UK spin-off of the hugely successful Lonelygirl15, the world’s most popular interactive drama series which launched in June 2006 and has since been viewed more than 60 million times. In line with this new trend in entertainment, Bebo is at the centre of the dialogue about how online programming is shaping teenage viewing habits, and with KateModern, is giving its 8.8 million UK users exactly what they’re asking for.

All kidding aside, I’ll get back to you after I talk to the folks at Bebo. Should be interesting.

Synergy Rulz, Dood July 30, 2007

Posted by David Card in Uncategorized.
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At least some are attributing The Simpsons movie’s strong opening to that much-hyped, but rarely delivered bugaboo — cross-media synergy. Hey, I’m a believer. And I’m not the only one.

    The analysts I’m talking to attribute the film’s success to Fox’s omnipresent marketing (including Homer opening this week’s Tonight Show and earlier American Idol as well as that inspired 7-Eleven cross-promotion). Pic insiders have nothing but praise for the year-long marketing and distribution campaign which Fox orchestrated throughout the News Corp empire.

Do These Count as Newspaper Blues? July 30, 2007

Posted by David Card in Media.
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I was a little skeptical, at the time, though I said AP’s “asap” attempt to aggregate news for a younger audience was worth watching. Well, not any more.

And, apparently, even online pure-plays — Monster unloaded its print business last summer — that are killing the newspaper industry are hurting.

Meanwhile, Fortune wonders if the Washington Post can survive. In the headline, anyway; the story is reasonably positive. And though it says Internet revenues aren’t growing fast enough to cover print declines, the story’s charts tell a different story, at least for the last few years.

In the Fortune piece, Warren Buffet seems to want to re-invent New Century Network. Puzzling.

Internet Professionals Hold Off Destroying Culture One More Day July 27, 2007

Posted by David Card in Media.
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The free MP3 from The Simpsons Movie soundtrack that you can download from AOL Music is an orchestral piece. Dumbing down Amuhrican culture, my @ss.

Any Excuse to Get Porn in My Headline July 27, 2007

Posted by David Card in Media.
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The NY Times takes a shot at writing about mainstream investors perhaps, just maybe, kinda sorta beginning to fund porn. But it can’t get anybody to go on the record. I suspect, as does the prez of AVN, a porn trade company, that it’s still mostly talk.

    For five years weve been talking mainstream, mainstream, mainstream, Mr. Fishbein said of the pornography trade. But it still sits on the periphery.

Five years? Come on. If mainstream money didn’t come on board for cable, VHS, DVDs, and the InterWeb, will it for mobile?

Magic Numbers July 25, 2007

Posted by David Card in Media.
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Let’s see. It took Apple six quarters plus to sell its first million iPods, five years ago. Apple says it will sell a million iPhones in a quarter and a few days. But then again, the iPhone was THE MOST HYPED PRODUCT IN HISTORY. I dunno…

Full disclaimer: I haven’t bought one yet, but I almost did this weekend, and it’s looking inevitable. I’m not usually an early adopter or a gadget guy — I have never owned a PDA, and have somehow managed to avoid mobile email to-date. But I bought an iPod the day after it came out.

Massive Lands Madden, Tiger July 25, 2007

Posted by David Card in Media.
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In-game advertising is still so tiny we can barely count it, but Microsoft’s Massive unit has signed up some of Electronic Arts’ biggest brands. That should help. Related Jupiter report.

Potter “Ecosystem”? July 25, 2007

Posted by David Card in Media.
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MSM headlines link Amazon’s strong quarter with Harry Potter. But Amazon won’t recognize revenues from those sales till next quarter. The NY Times says traffic was up 8% in anticipation, but media sales were up 27% and consumer electronics 55%. CEO Jeff Bezos says it was low prices and Amazon Prime shipping memberships. I suspect he’s closer to the real story.

Oh, and I’m about two thirds of the way through. (The weather was very nice this weekend.) No spoilers, please.

AOL to Acquire Tacoda July 24, 2007

Posted by David Card in Media.
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This is just breaking. Behavioral targeting’s hot (though core analytics are hotter). Ad network consolidation continues.

Since when do I do news?

Probably Not “Just Competition from Blockbuster” July 24, 2007

Posted by David Card in Media.
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Regular readers know that I’m a long-tail skeptic. Oh, there is one for sure, but few companies can make it supplying only the tail. Hits still matter, and usage concentration exists even online (Figure 2). In a 2006 big-picture Jupiter report, I suggested that continued explosive Netflix subscriber growth could prove me wrong, or show signs of changes in the Pareto principle power distribution law (the 80/20 rule).

    Long-tail content probably won’t reverse the Pareto principle, ever, but even a change from the 80-20 rule to a 70-30 ratio would be a dramatic reshaping of business. If Netflix’s subscriber growth continues, and its user patterns don’t change, it would be an indicator of such an evolution. If Netflix’s growth slows much, don’t expect any fundamental shifts.

The jury’s still out, but deliberations are heating up.

    Netflix ended the second quarter with 6.74 million subscribers, up 30% from 5.17 million a year earlier. However, the company lost 55,000 subscribers from last quarter. Netflix again cut its subscriber outlook, saying it expects to end the fourth quarter with 6.8 million to 7.3 million subscribers.